import { useDiveState, useSQLQuery } from "@motherduck/react-sql-query"; export const REQUIRED_DATABASES = [ { type: 'share', path: 'md:_share/duck_world_cup/f6bbc28f-0b34-4db6-b6f2-0816f3474b19', alias: 'duck_world_cup' } ]; const N = (v) => (v != null ? Number(v) : 0); const METRICS = [ { key: "ducks", label: "Ducks 🦆", desc: "national duck stocks" }, { key: "ducks_per_capita", label: "Ducks per capita", desc: "ducks per person" }, { key: "geese", label: "Geese", desc: "national goose stocks" }, { key: "chickens", label: "Chickens", desc: "national chicken stocks" }, { key: "poultry", label: "All poultry", desc: "ducks + geese + chickens combined" }, ]; const GROUPS = ["A","B","C","D","E","F","G","H","I","J","K","L"]; const FLAGS = { "Mexico":"🇲🇽","South Africa":"🇿🇦","South Korea":"🇰🇷","Czechia":"🇨🇿", "Canada":"🇨🇦","Bosnia and Herzegovina":"🇧🇦","Qatar":"🇶🇦","Switzerland":"🇨🇭", "Brazil":"🇧🇷","Haiti":"🇭🇹","Morocco":"🇲🇦","Scotland":"🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿", "United States":"🇺🇸","Australia":"🇦🇺","Paraguay":"🇵🇾","Türkiye":"🇹🇷", "Germany":"🇩🇪","Curaçao":"🇨🇼","Ecuador":"🇪🇨","Ivory Coast":"🇨🇮", "Netherlands":"🇳🇱","Japan":"🇯🇵","Sweden":"🇸🇪","Tunisia":"🇹🇳", "Belgium":"🇧🇪","Egypt":"🇪🇬","Iran":"🇮🇷","New Zealand":"🇳🇿", "Spain":"🇪🇸","Cape Verde":"🇨🇻","Saudi Arabia":"🇸🇦","Uruguay":"🇺🇾", "France":"🇫🇷","Iraq":"🇮🇶","Norway":"🇳🇴","Senegal":"🇸🇳", "Argentina":"🇦🇷","Algeria":"🇩🇿","Austria":"🇦🇹","Jordan":"🇯🇴", "Colombia":"🇨🇴","DR Congo":"🇨🇩","Portugal":"🇵🇹","Uzbekistan":"🇺🇿", "Croatia":"🇭🇷","England":"🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿","Ghana":"🇬🇭","Panama":"🇵🇦", }; const fg = (t) => FLAGS[t] || "🏳️"; // --- Real-world reference data --- // FIFA / Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking, released 11 June 2026 (via ESPN). const FIFA = { "Argentina":1,"Spain":2,"France":3,"England":4,"Portugal":5,"Brazil":6,"Morocco":7, "Netherlands":8,"Belgium":9,"Germany":10,"Croatia":11,"Colombia":13,"Mexico":14, "Senegal":15,"Uruguay":16,"United States":17,"Japan":18,"Switzerland":19,"Iran":20, "Türkiye":22,"Ecuador":23,"Austria":24,"South Korea":25,"Australia":27,"Algeria":28, "Egypt":29,"Canada":30,"Norway":31,"Ivory Coast":33,"Panama":34,"Sweden":38, "Czechia":40,"Paraguay":41,"Scotland":42,"Tunisia":45,"DR Congo":46,"Uzbekistan":50, "Qatar":56,"Iraq":57,"South Africa":60,"Saudi Arabia":61,"Jordan":63, "Bosnia and Herzegovina":64,"Cape Verde":67,"Ghana":73,"Curaçao":82,"Haiti":83, "New Zealand":85, }; const MODEL_FAV = new Set(["England","Spain","Brazil","Belgium","Portugal"]); const MODEL_CELLAR = new Set(["Iraq","Haiti","Curaçao"]); // martj42 dataset spellings -> our spellings const NORM = { "Czech Republic": "Czechia", "Turkey": "Türkiye" }; const norm = (t) => NORM[t] || t; const DECIDERS = [ { key: "ducks", label: "🦆 Ducks" }, { key: "fifa", label: "🌍 FIFA rank" }, { key: "actual", label: "⚽ Actual results" }, ]; function fmt(v, metric) { const n = N(v); if (metric === "ducks_per_capita") return n.toFixed(2); if (n >= 1e9) return (n / 1e9).toFixed(2) + "B"; if (n >= 1e6) return (n / 1e6).toFixed(1) + "M"; if (n >= 1e3) return (n / 1e3).toFixed(0) + "K"; return String(Math.round(n)); } function combos12choose4() { const out = []; for (let a = 0; a < 12; a++) for (let b = a + 1; b < 12; b++) for (let c = b + 1; c < 12; c++) for (let d = c + 1; d < 12; d++) out.push([a, b, c, d]); return out; } const ALL_COMBOS = combos12choose4(); const HYBRID_WITH = (metric) => `WITH res AS (SELECT CASE WHEN home_team='Czech Republic' THEN 'Czechia' WHEN home_team='Turkey' THEN 'Türkiye' ELSE home_team END h, CASE WHEN away_team='Czech Republic' THEN 'Czechia' WHEN away_team='Turkey' THEN 'Türkiye' ELSE away_team END a, home_score hs, away_score xs FROM read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/martj42/international_results/master/results.csv', nullstr='NA', types={'home_score':'INTEGER','away_score':'INTEGER'}) WHERE tournament='FIFA World Cup' AND date>='2026-06-01' AND home_score IS NOT NULL), base AS (SELECT team, group_letter, note, ducks_year, CASE WHEN '${metric}'='ducks' THEN COALESCE(ducks,0) WHEN '${metric}'='ducks_per_capita' THEN COALESCE(ducks_per_capita,0) WHEN '${metric}'='geese' THEN COALESCE(geese,0) WHEN '${metric}'='chickens' THEN COALESCE(chickens,0) WHEN '${metric}'='poultry' THEN COALESCE(ducks,0)+COALESCE(geese,0)+COALESCE(chickens,0) ELSE COALESCE(ducks,0) END AS metric_value, COALESCE(ducks,0) tb_ducks, COALESCE(geese,0) tb_geese, COALESCE(chickens,0) tb_chickens, (ducks IS NULL) ducks_unreported FROM "duck_world_cup"."main".team_poultry), pairs AS (SELECT t1.team a, t2.team b, t1.group_letter gl FROM base t1 JOIN base t2 ON t1.group_letter=t2.group_letter AND t1.teamb_sc THEN 3 WHEN a_sc=b_sc THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) ELSE (CASE WHEN row(amv,atd,atg,atc)=row(bmv,btd,btg,btc) THEN 1 WHEN row(amv,atd,atg,atc)>row(bmv,btd,btg,btc) THEN 3 ELSE 0 END) END AS p, CASE WHEN real THEN a_sc ELSE (CASE WHEN row(amv,atd,atg,atc)>=row(bmv,btd,btg,btc) THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) END AS gf, CASE WHEN real THEN b_sc ELSE (CASE WHEN row(amv,atd,atg,atc)>row(bmv,btd,btg,btc) THEN 0 ELSE 1 END) END AS ga FROM pr UNION ALL SELECT gl, b, CASE WHEN real THEN (CASE WHEN b_sc>a_sc THEN 3 WHEN a_sc=b_sc THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) ELSE (CASE WHEN row(bmv,btd,btg,btc)=row(amv,atd,atg,atc) THEN 1 WHEN row(bmv,btd,btg,btc)>row(amv,atd,atg,atc) THEN 3 ELSE 0 END) END, CASE WHEN real THEN b_sc ELSE (CASE WHEN row(bmv,btd,btg,btc)>=row(amv,atd,atg,atc) THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) END, CASE WHEN real THEN a_sc ELSE (CASE WHEN row(bmv,btd,btg,btc)>row(amv,atd,atg,atc) THEN 0 ELSE 1 END) END FROM pr), agg AS (SELECT team, gl group_letter, SUM(p) pts, SUM(gf)-SUM(ga) gd, SUM(gf) gf FROM pts GROUP BY team, gl), s AS (SELECT a.team, a.group_letter, b.note, b.ducks_year, b.metric_value, b.tb_ducks, b.tb_geese, b.tb_chickens, b.ducks_unreported, a.pts, a.gd, a.gf, row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY a.group_letter ORDER BY a.pts DESC, a.gd DESC, a.gf DESC, b.metric_value DESC, b.tb_ducks DESC, b.tb_geese DESC, b.tb_chickens DESC, a.team ASC) AS pos FROM agg a JOIN base b ON b.team=a.team)`; const hybridGrpSQL = (metric) => HYBRID_WITH(metric) + ` SELECT group_letter, team, pos, metric_value, tb_ducks, tb_geese, tb_chickens, ducks_unreported, ducks_year, note, pts, gd, gf FROM s ORDER BY group_letter, pos`; const hybridCupSQL = (metric) => HYBRID_WITH(metric) + `, thirds AS (SELECT *, row_number() OVER (ORDER BY pts DESC, gd DESC, gf DESC, metric_value DESC, tb_ducks DESC, tb_geese DESC, tb_chickens DESC, team ASC) AS trank FROM s WHERE pos=3), q8 AS (SELECT * FROM thirds WHERE trank<=8), combo AS (SELECT a.slots FROM "duck_world_cup"."main".annex_c a INNER JOIN (SELECT string_agg(group_letter,'' ORDER BY group_letter) q FROM q8) qq ON a.qualified=qq.q), slotmap AS (SELECT * FROM (VALUES ('A',1),('B',2),('D',3),('E',4),('G',5),('I',6),('K',7),('L',8)) t(slot,sp)), tassign AS (SELECT sm.slot, substr(c.slots, sm.sp, 1) tgrp FROM slotmap sm CROSS JOIN combo c), refs AS (SELECT ('1'||group_letter) rf, team FROM s WHERE pos=1 UNION ALL SELECT ('2'||group_letter), team FROM s WHERE pos=2 UNION ALL SELECT ('3'||ta.slot), s.team FROM tassign ta JOIN s ON s.group_letter=ta.tgrp AND s.pos=3), d32 AS (SELECT * FROM (VALUES (73,'2A','2B'),(74,'1E','3E'),(75,'1F','2C'),(76,'1C','2F'),(77,'1I','3I'),(78,'2E','2I'),(79,'1A','3A'),(80,'1L','3L'),(81,'1D','3D'),(82,'1G','3G'),(83,'2K','2L'),(84,'1H','2J'),(85,'1B','3B'),(86,'1J','2H'),(87,'1K','3K'),(88,'2D','2G')) t(match_no,href,aref)), r32 AS (SELECT d.match_no, rh.team home_team, ra.team away_team, CASE WHEN row(sh.metric_value,sh.tb_ducks,sh.tb_geese,sh.tb_chickens)>row(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) OR (row(sh.metric_value,sh.tb_ducks,sh.tb_geese,sh.tb_chickens)=row(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) AND sh.teamrow(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) OR (row(sh.metric_value,sh.tb_ducks,sh.tb_geese,sh.tb_chickens)=row(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) AND sh.teamrow(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) OR (row(sh.metric_value,sh.tb_ducks,sh.tb_geese,sh.tb_chickens)=row(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) AND sh.teamrow(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) OR (row(sh.metric_value,sh.tb_ducks,sh.tb_geese,sh.tb_chickens)=row(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) AND sh.teamrow(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) OR (row(sh.metric_value,sh.tb_ducks,sh.tb_geese,sh.tb_chickens)=row(sa.metric_value,sa.tb_ducks,sa.tb_geese,sa.tb_chickens) AND sh.team x.key === metric) || METRICS[0]; const metricName = m.label.replace(" 🦆", "").toLowerCase(); const cupQ = useSQLQuery(mode === "hybrid" ? `${hybridCupSQL(metric)}` : `SELECT stage, match_no, home_team, away_team, winner, home_val, away_val FROM "duck_world_cup"."main".duck_cup('${metric}') ORDER BY match_no`); const grpQ = useSQLQuery(mode === "hybrid" ? `${hybridGrpSQL(metric)}` : `SELECT group_letter, team, pos, metric_value, tb_ducks, tb_geese, tb_chickens, ducks_unreported, ducks_year, note FROM "duck_world_cup"."main".group_standings('${metric}') ORDER BY group_letter, pos`); // LIVE: real 2026 results, read straight from the public dataset on every reload const resQ = useSQLQuery(` SELECT date, home_team, away_team, home_score, away_score FROM read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/martj42/international_results/master/results.csv', nullstr='NA', types={'home_score':'INTEGER','away_score':'INTEGER'}) WHERE tournament = 'FIFA World Cup' AND date >= '2026-06-01' AND home_score IS NOT NULL ORDER BY date `); const matches = Array.isArray(cupQ.data) ? cupQ.data : []; const standings = Array.isArray(grpQ.data) ? grpQ.data : []; const results = (Array.isArray(resQ.data) ? resQ.data : []).map((r) => ({ date: r.date, h: norm(r.home_team), a: norm(r.away_team), hs: N(r.home_score), as: N(r.away_score), })); const byNo = Object.fromEntries(matches.map((x) => [N(x.match_no), x])); const ko = matches.filter((x) => N(x.match_no) >= 73); // per-team reference const info = {}; standings.forEach((r) => { info[r.team] = { group: r.group_letter, pos: N(r.pos), ducks: N(r.tb_ducks), geese: N(r.tb_geese), chickens: N(r.tb_chickens), year: r.ducks_year, unreported: r.ducks_unreported, fifa: FIFA[r.team], }; }); // ---- real (actual) group records from the live results ---- const rec = {}; standings.forEach((s) => { rec[s.team] = { team: s.team, group: s.group_letter, pl: 0, w: 0, d: 0, l: 0, gf: 0, ga: 0, pts: 0 }; }); results.forEach((g) => { const H = rec[g.h], A = rec[g.a]; if (!H || !A || H.group !== A.group) return; // group-stage matches only H.pl++; A.pl++; H.gf += g.hs; H.ga += g.as; A.gf += g.as; A.ga += g.hs; if (g.hs > g.as) { H.w++; H.pts += 3; A.l++; } else if (g.hs < g.as) { A.w++; A.pts += 3; H.l++; } else { H.d++; A.d++; H.pts++; A.pts++; } }); const realGD = (t) => (rec[t] ? rec[t].gf - rec[t].ga : 0); // sort team names by FIFA rank or by live actual results (ducks is handled by caller via metric_value) const sortByDecider = (teams, dk) => [...teams].sort((a, b) => { if (dk === "fifa") return (FIFA[a] || 999) - (FIFA[b] || 999); return (rec[b].pts - rec[a].pts) || (realGD(b) - realGD(a)) || (rec[b].gf - rec[a].gf) || ((FIFA[a] || 999) - (FIFA[b] || 999)); }); const final = byNo[104]; const third = byNo[103]; const champion = final ? final.winner : null; const runnerUp = final ? (final.winner === final.home_team ? final.away_team : final.home_team) : null; const championVal = final ? (final.winner === final.home_team ? final.home_val : final.away_val) : null; const hasPts = standings.length > 0 && standings[0].pts != null; const thirds = standings.filter((r) => N(r.pos) === 3).sort((a, b) => (hasPts ? (N(b.pts) - N(a.pts) || N(b.gd) - N(a.gd) || N(b.gf) - N(a.gf)) : 0) || N(b.metric_value) - N(a.metric_value) || N(b.tb_ducks) - N(a.tb_ducks) || N(b.tb_geese) - N(a.tb_geese) || N(b.tb_chickens) - N(a.tb_chickens) || (a.team < b.team ? -1 : 1)); const qualifiedThirds = new Set(thirds.slice(0, 8).map((r) => r.team)); // actual-results equivalent of the best-thirds picture, for the "Actual result" column const actualPosByTeam = {}; GROUPS.forEach((g) => { sortByDecider(standings.filter((r) => r.group_letter === g).map((r) => r.team), "actual").forEach((t, i) => { actualPosByTeam[t] = i + 1; }); }); const qualifiedThirdsActual = new Set( Object.keys(actualPosByTeam).filter((t) => actualPosByTeam[t] === 3) .sort((a, b) => (rec[b].pts - rec[a].pts) || (realGD(b) - realGD(a)) || (rec[b].gf - rec[a].gf) || ((FIFA[a] || 999) - (FIFA[b] || 999))) .slice(0, 8) ); const allSorted = [...standings].sort((a, b) => N(b.metric_value) - N(a.metric_value) || (a.team < b.team ? -1 : 1)); const duckRank = {}; allSorted.forEach((r, i) => { duckRank[r.team] = i + 1; }); const ranking = allSorted.slice(0, 16); const rankMax = ranking.length ? N(ranking[0].metric_value) : 1; const groupRows = standings.filter((r) => r.group_letter === groupSel); const grpMax = Math.max(1, ...groupRows.map((r) => N(r.metric_value))); // round labels const R32 = [74, 77, 73, 75, 83, 84, 81, 82, 76, 78, 79, 80, 86, 88, 85, 87]; const R16 = [89, 90, 93, 94, 91, 92, 95, 96]; const QF = [97, 98, 99, 100]; const SF = [101, 102]; const roundOf = (no) => { if (no === 104) return "the final"; if (no === 103) return "the third-place play-off"; if (SF.includes(no)) return "the semi-finals"; if (QF.includes(no)) return "the quarter-finals"; if (R16.includes(no)) return "the round of 16"; if (R32.includes(no)) return "the round of 32"; return "the group stage"; }; const tiebreak = (mt) => { if (!mt || N(mt.home_val) !== N(mt.away_val)) return null; const h = info[mt.home_team] || {}, a = info[mt.away_team] || {}; if (N(h.geese) !== N(a.geese)) return { code: "ET", bird: "geese (extra time)" }; if (N(h.chickens) !== N(a.chickens)) return { code: "P", bird: "chickens (penalties)" }; return { code: "•", bird: "drawing of lots" }; }; const fate = (team) => { const ms = ko.filter((x) => x.home_team === team || x.away_team === team) .sort((p, q) => N(p.match_no) - N(q.match_no)); if (!ms.length) return { label: "go out in the group stage" }; const last = ms[ms.length - 1]; const no = N(last.match_no); const won = last.winner === team; if (no === 104) return won ? { label: "are champions" } : { label: "lose the final" }; if (no === 103) return won ? { label: "finish third" } : { label: "finish fourth" }; return { label: "go out in " + roundOf(no) }; }; const advanced = (team) => ko.some((x) => x.home_team === team || x.away_team === team); // R32 opponent for a qualified third-placed team const r32Opponent = (team) => { const mt = ko.find((x) => R32.includes(N(x.match_no)) && (x.home_team === team || x.away_team === team)); if (!mt) return null; return { opp: mt.home_team === team ? mt.away_team : mt.home_team, no: N(mt.match_no) }; }; // headline const topFifaTeam = standings.length ? standings.map((r) => r.team).sort((a, b) => (FIFA[a] || 999) - (FIFA[b] || 999))[0] : null; const favFate = topFifaTeam ? fate(topFifaTeam) : null; // upset board: knockout matches where a lower-ranked side won, by FIFA-rank gap const upsets = ko.map((mt) => { const loser = mt.winner === mt.home_team ? mt.away_team : mt.home_team; const wr = FIFA[mt.winner], lr = FIFA[loser]; if (wr == null || lr == null) return null; return { gap: wr - lr, no: N(mt.match_no), winner: mt.winner, loser, wr, lr }; }).filter((u) => u && u.gap > 0).sort((a, b) => b.gap - a.gap || b.no - a.no).slice(0, 6); const upsetMax = upsets.length ? upsets[0].gap : 1; // "punching above their flock": duck seeding vs FIFA ranking for the top-16 duck nations const flock = ranking.map((r) => ({ team: r.team, duck: duckRank[r.team], fifa: FIFA[r.team] || null })) .filter((x) => x.fifa != null) .map((x) => ({ ...x, delta: x.fifa - x.duck })) .sort((a, b) => b.delta - a.delta); const flockMax = Math.max(1, ...flock.map((x) => Math.abs(x.delta))); // reality agreement: duck top-2 vs actual top-2 vs fifa top-2, across all 12 groups const grpTop2 = (g, dk) => { const teams = standings.filter((r) => r.group_letter === g); if (dk === "ducks") return teams.slice().sort((a, b) => N(b.metric_value) - N(a.metric_value)).slice(0, 2).map((r) => r.team); return sortByDecider(teams.map((r) => r.team), dk).slice(0, 2); }; const playedAny = results.length > 0; let agreeReal = 0, agreeFifa = 0; GROUPS.forEach((g) => { const duo = new Set(grpTop2(g, "ducks")); grpTop2(g, "actual").forEach((t) => { if (duo.has(t)) agreeReal++; }); grpTop2(g, "fifa").forEach((t) => { if (duo.has(t)) agreeFifa++; }); }); // ---- match-level duck verdict: cascade ducks -> geese -> chickens (the same tiebreak the bracket uses) ---- // Works for any played match, group stage or knockout, so the scoreboard keeps growing as the real tournament unfolds. const cascadePick = (h, a) => { const H = info[h], A = info[a]; if (!H || !A) return null; if (N(H.ducks) !== N(A.ducks)) return N(H.ducks) > N(A.ducks) ? h : a; if (N(H.geese) !== N(A.geese)) return N(H.geese) > N(A.geese) ? h : a; if (N(H.chickens) !== N(A.chickens)) return N(H.chickens) > N(A.chickens) ? h : a; return null; // dead heat on all three birds -> drawing of lots }; const matchVerdict = (g) => { const actual = g.hs > g.as ? g.h : g.as > g.hs ? g.a : null; // null = real draw const pick = cascadePick(g.h, g.a); const duckGap = info[g.h] && info[g.a] && N(info[g.h].ducks) !== N(info[g.a].ducks); return { actual, pick, duckGap, correct: !!(actual && pick && pick === actual) }; }; const verdicts = results.map(matchVerdict); const realDraws = verdicts.filter((v) => !v.actual).length; const cascadeDecided = verdicts.filter((v) => v.actual && v.pick); const cascadeRight = cascadeDecided.filter((v) => v.correct).length; const cascadePct = cascadeDecided.length ? Math.round((cascadeRight / cascadeDecided.length) * 100) : 0; const duckOnly = verdicts.filter((v) => v.actual && v.duckGap); const duckRight = duckOnly.filter((v) => v.correct).length; const duckPct = duckOnly.length ? Math.round((duckRight / duckOnly.length) * 100) : 0; // group games played (each group plays 6 -> 72 total) for an honest "provisional" label const gamesByGroup = {}; GROUPS.forEach((g) => { gamesByGroup[g] = 0; }); results.forEach((g) => { if (info[g.h] && info[g.a] && info[g.h].group === info[g.a].group) gamesByGroup[info[g.h].group]++; }); const groupGamesPlayed = Object.values(gamesByGroup).reduce((s, n) => s + n, 0); // average real goal margin for the duckier side, across every match with a duck gap (draws count as 0) const dgMatches = results.filter((g) => info[g.h] && info[g.a] && N(info[g.h].ducks) !== N(info[g.a].ducks)); const avgDuckierMargin = dgMatches.length ? dgMatches.reduce((s, g) => { const hDuckier = N(info[g.h].ducks) > N(info[g.a].ducks); return s + (hDuckier ? g.hs - g.as : g.as - g.hs); }, 0) / dgMatches.length : 0; // real-world upsets: actual matches (group stage now, knockouts later) the lower FIFA-ranked side won const realUpsets = results.map((g) => { const w = g.hs > g.as ? g.h : g.as > g.hs ? g.a : null; if (!w) return null; const l = w === g.h ? g.a : g.h; const wr = FIFA[w], lr = FIFA[l]; if (wr == null || lr == null || wr <= lr) return null; const ws = w === g.h ? g.hs : g.as, ls = w === g.h ? g.as : g.hs; return { gap: wr - lr, w, l, wr, lr, ws, ls, date: g.date }; }).filter(Boolean).sort((a, b) => b.gap - a.gap || (a.date < b.date ? 1 : -1)).slice(0, 8); const realUpsetMax = realUpsets.length ? realUpsets[0].gap : 1; // ----- styling ----- const ink = "#231f20", mut = "#595959", blue = "#0777b3", rust = "#bd4e35"; const gold = "#b8791f", goldBg = "#fdf4e3", green = "#2d7a00", red = "#bc1200"; const pill = (active) => ({ padding: "4px 12px", borderRadius: 999, fontSize: 13, cursor: "pointer", border: active ? "1px solid " + blue : "1px solid #c9c9c9", background: active ? blue : "transparent", color: active ? "#ffffff" : ink, }); const tabBtn = (active) => ({ padding: "8px 16px", fontSize: 14, fontWeight: 600, cursor: "pointer", border: "none", background: "transparent", color: active ? ink : mut, borderBottom: active ? "3px solid " + blue : "3px solid transparent", }); const card = { border: "1px solid #e2e2e2", borderRadius: 10, padding: "14px 16px", background: "#ffffff" }; const skel = (h) =>

; const isSel = (t) => sel && t === sel; const pick = (t) => setSel(sel === t ? "" : t); // clickable team chip (everywhere outside the SVG) const Team = ({ t, bold }) => ( { e.stopPropagation(); pick(t); }} title={"Click to inspect " + t} style={{ cursor: "pointer", fontWeight: bold ? 700 : "inherit", borderBottom: "1px dotted #b8b8b8", background: isSel(t) ? goldBg : "transparent" }}> {fg(t)} {t} ); // ---- bracket geometry ---- const W = 880, H = 700, colX = [6, 184, 362, 540, 718], colW = 162, bh = 36, slot = 41, TOP = 22; const r32y = R32.map((_, i) => TOP + (i + 0.5) * slot); const r16y = R16.map((_, i) => (r32y[i * 2] + r32y[i * 2 + 1]) / 2); const qfy = QF.map((_, i) => (r16y[i * 2] + r16y[i * 2 + 1]) / 2); const sfy = SF.map((_, i) => (qfy[i * 2] + qfy[i * 2 + 1]) / 2); const fy = (sfy[0] + sfy[1]) / 2; const Box = ({ no, x, y }) => { const mt = byNo[no]; if (!mt) return null; const top = y - bh / 2; const tb = tiebreak(mt); const rows = [[mt.home_team, mt.home_val], [mt.away_team, mt.away_val]]; const dim = sel && mt.home_team !== sel && mt.away_team !== sel; return ( {rows.map(([team, val], i) => { const win = team === mt.winner; const seld = isSel(team); const ry = top + i * (bh / 2); return ( pick(team)}> {`${team} — ${fmt(val, metric)} ${metricName}${info[team] && info[team].fifa ? ` · FIFA #${info[team].fifa}` : ""}${win ? " · winner" : ""}`} {seld ? : win ? : null} {win ? "▸ " : ""}{fg(team)} {team.length > 11 ? team.slice(0, 10) + "…" : team} {fmt(val, metric)} ); })} {tb ? ( Drawn on {metricName} — settled by {tb.bird} {tb.code} ) : null} ); }; const elbow = (x1, y1, x2, y2) => { const mx = (x1 + x2) / 2; return `${x1},${y1} ${mx},${y1} ${mx},${y2} ${x2},${y2}`; }; // Annex C const excludedGroups = thirds.slice(8).map((r) => r.group_letter).sort(); const excludedIdx = excludedGroups.map((g) => GROUPS.indexOf(g)); const activeComboKey = excludedIdx.join(","); return (

The Duck World Cup 🦆

LIVE, refreshed every load · 48 teams · 104 matches · 495 Annex C perms{playedAny ? ` · ${results.length} played` : ""}

The real 2026 FIFA World Cup — actual teams, groups and bracket — but every match is won by whichever nation has more {m.desc}. Ties go to extra time (geese), then penalties (chickens).

{METRICS.map((x) => ( ))}

Resolve by:

{mode === "hybrid" ? <>Played matches use the real 2026 result; everything still to come is forecast by {metricName}. The group tables, best-thirds and bracket all re-seed live. : <>Every match, played or not, is decided purely by {metricName}: the original alternate universe.} {metric === "ducks_per_capita" ? " Per capita rewards small nations that punch above their flock." : ""}

{tab === "cup" && ( <> {/* headline */} {cupQ.isLoading || grpQ.isLoading ? skel(120) : (

The question

Can ducks predict the 2026 World Cup? In this universe, {champion ? <> lift the trophy : <>the flock is still gathering} {championVal != null ? <> with {fmt(championVal, metric)} {metricName} : null}.{" "} {topFifaTeam && favFate ? ( topFifaTeam === champion ? <>The actual FIFA #1 somehow survives the pond math too. : <>The actual FIFA #1, , {favFate.label}. ) : null}

The joke is ducks. The machinery is real DuckDB: live CSV reads, group-table recomputation, deterministic bird tiebreaks and all 495 Annex C third-place bracket permutations.

Live duck verdict

{playedAny ? `${cascadePct}%` : "soon"}

{playedAny ? <>duck picks correct so far, {cascadeRight} of {cascadeDecided.length} decisive matches : <>starts scoring when real results land}

Try clicking: {[champion, topFifaTeam, "Curaçao", "England"].filter(Boolean).filter((t, i, arr) => arr.indexOf(t) === i).slice(0, 4).map((t) => ( ))} Each country has a dossier with livestock, real results and its knockout fate.

)}

How to read this

{[ ["1", "Pick a bird metric"], ["2", "Choose Ducks + reality or Ducks universe"], ["3", "Click a country"], ["4", "Watch the bracket rewire"] ].map(([n, txt]) => (

{n} {txt}

))}

{/* core story cards */}

Duck Power Ranking

The top flock by the current metric. This is the seed list that drives the bracket.

{m.label}

{ranking.slice(0, 10).map((r, i) => (

{i + 1}

{r.ducks_unreported && metric === "ducks" ? "0*" : fmt(r.metric_value, metric)}

))}

)} {/* drill-down */} {sel && info[sel] ? (

setSel("")} style={{ position: "fixed", inset: 0, zIndex: 50, background: "rgba(20,18,18,0.5)", display: "flex", alignItems: "center", justifyContent: "center", padding: 16 }}>

e.stopPropagation()} style={{ width: 420, maxWidth: "100%", maxHeight: "85vh", overflowY: "auto", padding: 16, borderRadius: 14, border: "1px solid " + gold, background: goldBg, boxShadow: "0 18px 50px rgba(0,0,0,0.35)" }}>

{fg(sel)} {sel}

Group {info[sel].group} · FIFA #{info[sel].fifa ?? "—"} {MODEL_FAV.has(sel) ? " · model favourite" : MODEL_CELLAR.has(sel) ? " · model also-ran" : ""}

Ducks 🦆 {info[sel].year ? `(${info[sel].year})` : ""}

{info[sel].unreported && info[sel].ducks === 0 ? "0 (unreported)" : fmt(info[sel].ducks, "ducks")}

Geese (extra time)

{fmt(info[sel].geese, "geese")}

Chickens (penalties)

{fmt(info[sel].chickens, "chickens")}

Real form so far

{rec[sel] && rec[sel].pl ? `${rec[sel].w}-${rec[sel].d}-${rec[sel].l} · ${rec[sel].pts} pts` : "—"}

Real results so far {rec[sel] && rec[sel].pl ? `${rec[sel].w}-${rec[sel].d}-${rec[sel].l} · ${rec[sel].pts} pts · GD ${realGD(sel) >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${realGD(sel)}` : "not played yet"}

{(() => { const mine = results.filter((g) => g.h === sel || g.a === sel); if (!mine.length) return

No matches played yet — check back as the group stage unfolds.

; return mine.map((g, i) => { const home = g.h === sel; const me = home ? g.hs : g.as, opp = home ? g.a : g.h, os = home ? g.as : g.hs; const oc = me > os ? "W" : me < os ? "L" : "D"; const v = matchVerdict(g); const vb = !v.actual ? "🦆 —" : !v.pick ? "🦆 ?" : v.correct ? "🦆 ✓" : "🦆 ✗"; const vc = (!v.actual || !v.pick) ? mut : v.correct ? green : red; return (

{oc} vs {me}–{os} {vb}

); }); })()}

On {metricName}, {fg(sel)} {sel} {fate(sel).label}.

{(() => { const runs = ko.filter((x) => x.home_team === sel || x.away_team === sel).sort((a, b) => N(a.match_no) - N(b.match_no)); if (!runs.length) return

Eliminated in the group stage — no knockout matches under this metric.

; return (

Knockout run (by {metricName})

{runs.map((x) => { const opp = x.home_team === sel ? x.away_team : x.home_team; const mine = x.home_team === sel ? x.home_val : x.away_val; const theirs = x.home_team === sel ? x.away_val : x.home_val; const won = x.winner === sel; const tb = tiebreak(x); return (

{roundOf(N(x.match_no)).replace("the ", "")} {won ? "W" : "L"} vs {fmt(mine, metric)}–{fmt(theirs, metric)}{tb ? " · " + tb.bird : ""}

); })}

); })()}

) : (

Try the interactive bit

Click any country name, bracket row or suggested chip to open its dossier: livestock, real results so far and its run under the current metric. Click outside the card to dismiss.

)} {tab === "cup" && ( <> {/* bracket */}

The road to glory

The 32-team knockout bracket. Winners (more {metricName}) advance with a ▸ blue marker. An ET/P badge marks a tie settled by geese (extra time) or chickens (penalties). Click any team to trace its path — the rest dims.

{cupQ.isLoading ? skel(420) : (

)} )} {tab === "reality" && ( <> {/* DUCKS VS REALITY (consolidated) */}

Do ducks predict reality?

The headline question, scored live. As real 2026 results land (refreshed on every load), we hold each match up to the duck pick — the same ducks → geese → chickens tiebreak the bracket runs on — and check who actually won.

{playedAny ? ( <>

{cascadePct}%

of decisive matches the ducks called right so far — {cascadeRight} of {cascadeDecided.length} played

{duckRight} / {duckOnly.length}

right when ducks alone had an opinion ({duckPct}%) — most ties never reach the geese

{avgDuckierMargin >= 0 ? "+" : ""}{avgDuckierMargin.toFixed(1)}

average real goal margin for the duckier side, over {dgMatches.length} matches with a duck gap

{realDraws}

real draws so far — football's hedge that the duck cup abolishes

Scored over {results.length} matches to date ({groupGamesPlayed} of 72 group games) and updating through the knockouts. For reference, pre-tournament FIFA seeding matched the duck top-two in {agreeFifa}/24 group slots; the actual standings so far match in {agreeReal}/24 (provisional — the groups aren't finished).

) :

The duck verdict goes live the moment real results land.

} {/* "punching above their flock" moved below the live tournament */} {/* real-world upset leaderboard now lives in the "real tournament so far" section below */} )} {tab === "cup" && ( <> {/* group stage + ducks vs reality (merged) */}

Group stage, three ways

{GROUPS.map((g) => ( ))}

Each group ranked three ways — flip the decider to re-sort. The 🦆 ducks / 🌍 FIFA / ⚽ actual columns put the contrast side by side; the Duck result column and the bracket always use ducks.

Decide by: {DECIDERS.map((d) => ( ))}

{grpQ.isLoading ? skel(150) : (() => { const teams = standings.filter((r) => r.group_letter === groupSel); const order = decider === "ducks" ? teams.slice().sort((a, b) => N(a.pos) - N(b.pos)).map((r) => r.team) : sortByDecider(teams.map((r) => r.team), decider); const actualOrder = sortByDecider(teams.map((x) => x.team), "actual"); return ( {order.map((t, i) => { const r = teams.find((x) => x.team === t); const pos = N(r.pos); const duckAdv = pos <= 2 || (pos === 3 && qualifiedThirds.has(t)); const hi = decider === "ducks" ? duckAdv : i < 2; const re = rec[t] || { pl: 0, w: 0, d: 0, l: 0, pts: 0 }; const apos = actualOrder.indexOf(t) + 1; return ( ); })}

#	Team	⚽ Actual (W-D-L · Pts)	Actual result	🌍 FIFA	🦆 {m.label.replace(" 🦆", "")}	Duck result
{i + 1}		{re.pl ? `${re.w}-${re.d}-${re.l} · ${re.pts}` : "— not played"}	{apos <= 2 ? Advances : apos === 3 && qualifiedThirdsActual.has(t) ? Best 3rd : Eliminated}	#{FIFA[t] ?? "—"}	{r.ducks_unreported && metric === "ducks" ? "0*" : fmt(N(r.metric_value), metric)}	{pos <= 2 ? Advances : pos === 3 && qualifiedThirds.has(t) ? Best 3rd : Eliminated}

); })()} {groupRows.some((r) => r.note) ? (

{groupRows.find((r) => r.note).note}.

) :

} )} {tab === "reality" && ( <> {/* live results to date (featured) */}

The real tournament, so far

Pulled straight from the public international-results dataset with a read_csv() over the URL on every reload — no copy is stored in the dive, and the standings, group tables and the scoreboard above all recompute from it as the real tournament unfolds. The 🦆 column marks whether the duck pick matched the actual result.

{realUpsets.length ? (

Biggest upsets so far

Actual matches the lower FIFA-ranked side won — group stage now, knockouts as they come. Bar = the FIFA-ranking gap overturned.

{realUpsets.map((u, i) => (

#{u.wr} beat #{u.lr} {u.ws}–{u.ls}

+{u.gap}

))}

) : null}

Every result

{resQ.isLoading ? skel(160) : resQ.error ? (

Live results unavailable right now.

) : results.length ? (

{(showAll ? results.slice().reverse() : results.slice().reverse().slice(0, 10)).map((g, i) => { const hw = g.hs > g.as, aw = g.as > g.hs; return ( {(() => { const v = matchVerdict(g); let txt, col, tip; if (!v.actual) { txt = "🦆 —"; col = mut; tip = "Real draw — the duck cup would force extra time (geese)"; } else if (!v.pick) { txt = "🦆 ?"; col = mut; tip = "Dead heat on ducks, geese and chickens — drawing of lots"; } else if (v.correct) { txt = "🦆 ✓"; col = green; tip = "Ducks correctly picked " + v.pick; } else { txt = "🦆 ✗"; col = red; tip = "Ducks picked " + v.pick; } return ; })()} ); })}

{String(g.date).slice(0, 10)}

{g.hs}–{g.as}

{txt}

) :

No matches found.

} {results.length > 10 ? ( ) : null}

Punching above their flock

Duck seeding vs FIFA ranking, top 16 duck nations. Right = ducks rate them higher than FIFA; left = lower.

{grpQ.isLoading ? skel(200) : (

{flock.map((x) => { const w = (Math.abs(x.delta) / flockMax) * 48; const pos = x.delta >= 0; return (

🦆 {x.duck} · 🌍 {x.fifa}

{!pos ?

: null}

{pos ?

: null}

{pos ? "+" : ""}{x.delta}

); })}

)} )} {tab === "annexc" && ( <>

The Annex C machine

New for 2026: the top two from all 12 groups qualify automatically (24 teams), and the field is topped up by the eight best of the twelve third-placed teams. The catch — the round-of-32 fixtures are fixed by group slot, so which four groups lose their third-placed team changes who plays whom. FIFA's Annex C is a lookup table with a pre-defined bracket for all {ALL_COMBOS.length} possibilities (C(12,4) = 495). This dive resolves whichever one your metric produces.

{/* step strip */}

{[ ["1 · Rank the thirds", `All twelve 3rd-placed teams are ranked by ${metricName}.`], ["2 · Keep the best 8", "The top eight qualify; the bottom four are eliminated."], ["3 · Read Annex C", `The set of 4 eliminated groups (${excludedGroups.join(", ") || "…"}) selects 1 of 495 bracket wirings.`], ["4 · Slot the bracket", "Each surviving third is assigned its round-of-32 opponent."], ].map(([h, b]) => (

{h}

{b}

))}

{grpQ.isLoading ? skel(220) : ( <>

The twelve third-placed teams, ranked by {metricName}

{thirds.map((r, i) => { const inq = i < 8; const opp = inq ? r32Opponent(r.team) : null; return (

{i + 1} {inq ? "✅" : "❌"} Gp {r.group_letter} {inq && opp ? → R32 vs {fg(opp.opp)} {opp.opp} : {r.ducks_unreported && metric === "ducks" ? "0*" : fmt(r.metric_value, metric)}}

); })}

Under {metricName}, the thirds from groups {thirds.slice(0, 8).map((r) => r.group_letter).sort().join(", ")} advance and are slotted into the fixtures above; the thirds from {excludedGroups.join(", ")} go home. Switch the metric and both the survivors and the wiring change.

All {ALL_COMBOS.length} permutations — the highlighted one is live

Each square is one way to pick the four eliminated groups. The red square is the current one (eliminating {excludedGroups.join(", ")}). Hover any square to see which groups it drops.

{ALL_COMBOS.map((c, i) => { const active = c.join(",") === activeComboKey; return (

GROUPS[x]).join(", ")} style={{ paddingBottom: "100%", borderRadius: 2, background: active ? rust : "#dde6ec", outline: active ? "2px solid " + rust : "none", outlineOffset: 1 }} /> ); })}

)} )} {/* fine print */}

What makes this absurdly serious

Rules implemented: official FIFA 2026 format, 12 groups of 4, top two plus the eight best third-placed teams. Third-place allocation implements all 495 Annex C combinations from the FIFA regulations.
Data sources: national duck stocks from FAOSTAT, latest reported year, via Our World in Data. Extra time = geese, penalties = chickens.
DuckDB bits: live results are read directly from the public-domain international results dataset with read_csv() on every reload, then recomputed through the group tables, best-thirds and bracket.

One query, live bracket

{`SELECT date, home_team, away_team, home_score, away_score
FROM read_csv(
  'https://raw.githubusercontent.com/martj42/international_results/master/results.csv',
  nullstr = 'NA',
  types = {'home_score':'INTEGER','away_score':'INTEGER'}
)
WHERE tournament = 'FIFA World Cup'
  AND date >= '2026-06-01'
  AND home_score IS NOT NULL
ORDER BY date;`}

Every reload reads the latest public match results, normalizes country names, recalculates group tables, ranks third-place teams, selects the correct Annex C bracket permutation and resolves the remaining tournament by ducks.

Real-world references: pre-tournament FIFA World Ranking (11 Jun 2026) and favourites per the PyMC Labs forecast.
Fine print: fourteen nations have never declared a single duck to the FAO and enter with 0 ducks on record. Sweden formally reported exactly zero (2023). Curaçao reports no poultry and competes on vibes. England & Scotland share the UK's flock. Mexico's figure is from a 1990 census, honored posthumously.

); }

The Duck World Cup 🦆

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